Friday, December 23, 2005

Crunching the Numbers

I've been looking at all the numbers from the three votes participated in by the Iraqi citizens in 2005 (January 30, October 15, and December 15) and I've concluded that, although there were most likely instances of fraud, the election results for December 15 conform reasonably well with the numbers generated by the previous two votes.

As in all elections, there are winners and losers. I believe that the candidates in this election who have cried "fraud" are simply sore losers.

Valid vote totals for the three votes in 2005.

Votes -- Jan. 30 -- Oct. 15 -- Dec. 15.

Anbar -- 3,775 -- 259,919 -- 369,755

Babil -- 494,054 -- 543,779 -- 553,133

Bghd 1,750,772 - 2,120,615 - 2,392,543

Basrah - 713,271 -- 691,024 -- 794,286

Dohuk -- 383,265 -- 389,198 -- 394,662

Diyala - 210,574 -- 476,980 -- 495,522

Erbil -- 647,994 -- 830,520 -- 660,168

Karbala 297,201 -- 264,674 -- 302,834

Kirkuk - 400,892 -- 542,688 -- 514,068

Missan - 246,957 -- 254,067 -- 317,177

Muth. -- 173,155 -- 185,710 -- 203,902

Najaf -- 359,268 -- 299,420 -- 368,856

Ninewa - 165,934 -- 718,758 -- 820,350

Qadis. - 337,220 -- 297,176 -- 331,302

Salah. - 137,476 -- 510,152 -- 487,451

Sulay. - 731,323 -- 723,723 -- 787,248

Theqar - 522,271 -- 463,710 -- 576,660

Wasit -- 324,678 -- 280,128 -- 346,564

TOTALS - 8,456,266 - 9,852,291 - 10,716,505

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Mark, Heiko, Kerry, and myself have been discussing the election results over at Mark's Conserva-Puppies and earlier here at Iraqi Bloggers Central (check the comments pages for these links).

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Mark over at Conserva-Puppies has just posted a thorough review of the December 15 parliamentary election numbers.
I decided to calculate, using the highest remainder method of allocating seats by proportional representation by province, how many of the 230 seats will be awarded to each party list. (This calculation doesn't estimate the additional 45 seats that will be awarded on a nationwide basis.)

Here are my calculations:
(Percent divides the seats won by the party by 230)

List 555 - 111 Seats - 48.26 pct
List 730 - 43 Seats - 18.70 pct
List 618 - 37 Seats - 16.09 pct
List 731 - 21 Seats - 9.13 pct
List 667 - 9 Seats - 3.91 pct
List 561 - 4 Seats - 1.74 pct
List 516 - 3 Seats - 1.30 pct
List 630 - 1 Seats - 0.43 pct
List 631 - 1 Seats - 0.43 pct

The preliminary results don't appear as gloomy as many people have been implying.

I do realize that the Shia based UIA (list 555) isn't the only party that scares people. Some of the Sunni parties aren't exactly full of peace, love and understanding.

I had hoped that at least one secular party, not so closely tied to any particular religious sect or ethnicity, would win a significant number of seats. This has not happened. Most Iraqis are still voting on ethnic and religious lines. Perhaps an electoral system of proportional representation encourages this more than a "first past the post" electoral system.

The UIA will probably have to form a coalition. I don't think they will be able to rule all by themselves.
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