Sunday, February 27, 2005

Geopolitics Iraq...Syria...Iran...Lebanon: Rumors Of Deals And Hope For The Masses

Things are Hot and Heavy -- like a Saturday night at the Passion Pit in Encino -- in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran these days.

Ladybird of Baghdad Dweller translates an article from the Iraqi newspaper AL-MADA which alledges that
the US cut a deal with Syria not to invade or take military action against them in return for information on the Syrian-backed and Baathist insurgents in Mosul:

A secret transaction took place between the United States and Syria, supplying the side in complete information and detailed (MG says: supplying inside and detailed information) about the armed nets which Syria runs in Mosul opposite to (the Iraqi and Coalition Forces) that The United States not take (would not initiate) a military strike for (against) Syria.

American troops in their last raid on a mosque in Mosul were escorted by a person who speak Syrian accent. Eyewitnesses said. The first information reveal about 35 insurgents groups of 750 insurgent runs by Syrian intelligence in Mosul, The available information that the Syrian side delivered Baathist names in cooperative with the Syrian side and that lead to the arrest of 8 members of the Baath party.

Hmmm, I'm very skeptical. Mideast newspapers seem to be overflowing with Conspiracy theories and Hidden Agendas these days. And the stakes are too low. There has to be a much bigger payoff to the US for any non-Aggression Pact with Syria than outing out some low level Baathist and other riff-raff insurgents around Mosul. Don't think so, Ladysweetie but thanks for the translation.

The always Ebullient DEBKA meanwhile has a whopper of a story about Iraqi PM Iyad Allawi cutting deals left and right:

Allawi recently closed a three-way deal with the most influential Iraqi Shiite cleric, Ayatollah Ali Sistani, and the Tehran leadership for Iran to arrest him if he tries to cross the border and surrender him to Sistani in Najef. There, Zarqawi will stand trial for murdering 182 people and injuring 550 in the 2004 Ashoura massacres he orchestrated in Najef and Karbala. The Iraqi leader has not revealed how this agreement was negotiated with Tehran.

But wait, there's more: Al Qaeda’s network chiefs in Iraq have their backs to the wall but are not alone; in secret talks with Allawi, several heads of the Baathist underground guerrilla insurgency, have offered to lay down arms if Baghdad sets up a Truth and Reconciliation Commission on the lines of the South African forum devised by Nobel peace prize winner Archbishop Desmond Tutu. They want the chance to confess their crimes before the commission, repent publicly, obtain a pardon and walk free. The interim prime minister is willing to consider this option quite seriously.

Zoinks! Allawi sure has been a really busy man~evidently. Who knows how much of it is true, but it sure is interesting and there's more from DEBKA, so go check out the link.

And speaking of the Geopolitics of Iran and Lebanon, the underrated - Hat Tip Instapundit says:

While they don't have troops in Lebanon, Iran is the biggest funder and trainer for Hizbollah, which control's the country's south (and typical of Mideastern "democracies", they are considered a legitimate party by the current pro-Syrian regime).

If the Cedar Revolution, which is inspired by Iraq's elections, succeeds, not only it could ignite similar revolutions (or at least reforms) in Syria and Iran. And Iran is easy to fall - according to this:

Tehran, Feb. 24 – In a recent secret report to the Iranian regime's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps pointed out that were a demonstration or rebellion to last more than six hours in Tehran, the security apparatus would no longer be able to control the situation.

And what better way to ignite revolution on the streets of Tehran than by the defeat of Iran's terrorists in Lebanon? And amid Iran's race towards nuclear weaponry, isn't getting rid of the current Mullahocracy vital? Surprisingly, the Cedar Revolution is receiving less press coverage than Ukraine's Orange Revolution. Maybe it is because Arabs and Persians don't deserve democracy?

Well, what can you say after all this? The Bowling Pins of the various Mideast Loonarcracy Regimes seem to have been struck by the Bowling Ball known as the Bush Revolution and are flying off the
lane of repression as we speak.

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